It seems like it’s Alexis Rios day. First, this Hardball Times column confirms what we all know, and that is that Rios has a cannon for an arm. According to the metrics introduced, he has the best hold ratio (129) so people are hesitant to run on him. And even when the do decide to run on him, Rios does his job with a rock solid 133 kill ratio. That all equates to Rios saving approximately 11.6/200 opportunities. With 123 opportunities in 2006, Rios saved about seven runs, or close to a full win.
Then, Rios gets a full player profile at Baseball Prospectus. You get a nice analysis of Rios’ minor league stats as well as what he’s done since he’s the Blue Jays. Nice stuff.
Rios has a tempered PECOTA projection in 2007. His weighted mean average has him at .280/.332/.457 with fifteen homeruns but he does have a nice breakout (22%) and improve (52%) so I think he could hit his 75th percentile, which stands at .296/.349/.490.
